free guy – marketing recap

how Fox Disney has sold an action-comedy about life inside a video game

Ryan Reynolds and Jodie Comer star in this week’s Free Guy, directed by Shawn Levy. Reynolds plays Guy, an NPC (non-playable character, i.e. background cannon fodder) in an open-world video game created by Antwan (Taika Waititi). When two of Antwan’s developers insert new code into the game, Guy becomes self-aware, realizing he lives in a video game. Millie (Comer), one of those developers, uses her avatar to explore the game and help Guy save the game before Antwan, who doesn’t care for the updates or the attention Guy’s self-directed actions has attracted.

The movie, which has a solid 86% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, was one of the last developed by 20th Century Fox before it was acquired by Disney a couple years ago. It finally hits theaters this week after a number of delays and a marketing campaign that has acknowledged those delays with winking humor.

announcement and casting

The movie had been in various stages of development at Fox for a few years, with Levy and Reynolds signing on in 2018/19, finally moving things forward. Comer joined in 2019, leading to production getting fully underway.

comic-con and the first marketing attempts

As the movie had its official coming out with a well-received panel at New York Comic-Con in October, Fox released a “Meet the Cast” video that had everyone talking about how excited they were to work with the others. It included Reynolds and Waititi claiming they have never worked together before, while Comer and Keery try to correct the record, a nice bit of fun that’s in line with the public personas of both actors.

Unfinished footage from the film was also shown off to NYCC attendees, while a sizzle reel of the panel and press activities from the convention was released shortly after it ended.

Guy takes on a traditional super hero pose on the first poster (by marketing agency LA), standing with his shirt opened to show what’s underneath, which in this case is just another shirt and tie. It’s meant to communicate his ordinary nature, that he’s not a hero and doesn’t have hidden abilities and thanks to Reynolds’ expression that comes off as genuine.

Reynolds and others traveled to Brazil in December to appear at CCXP, where they showed off the trailer and other footage while working to get the audience there excited for the film.

December 2019’s first trailer (14.4m views on YouTube) starts off very dramatically, identifying the film as coming from the same studio that brought audiences Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin and The Lion King (twice) before showing someone skydiving into an epic action sequence. It’s then that we meet Guy, a normal guy who takes all the violence and chaos around him in stride until he starts wondering if there’s more to life than constantly being held up at the bank where he works and being shot at all the time. Putting on a pair of glasses shows him the reality of the world around him and leads him to the realization he’s in a video game, but has the freedom to be the hero his world needs.

There’s more going on the second poster, released in December, as we see Guy strolling blindly down a city street that’s filled with the chaos of bombs being dropped, cars exploding and more. It conveys nicely the idea that he’s a character incapable of recognizing, much less impacting the events happening around him.

Another entry in the self-deprecating part of the campaign came in January with a video of Reynolds and Comer talking about the craft of acting, with Reynolds increasingly frustrated by how Comer is consistently referred to in the context of the awards she’s won.

Disney used the social media app Weibo to release a special poster designed in the style of Chinese tapestries to celebrate Lunar New Year.

delays, delays and more delays

Originally scheduled for summer of 2020, it was among the titles Disney delayed in a big announcement last April as the severity of the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. and elsewhere was becoming clear.

When that announcement was made, Reynolds and others took it upon themselves to release an unfinished, watermarked clip of Guy in his apartment watching the news, all of which is horrible. The clip was meant to be both relatable given reality at the moment and to just keep the movie in everyone’s mind and includes the new date followed by a 🤞, which is a nice touch.

While there was a Total Film feature story on the film that included comments from Levy, Comer and Reynolds and a steady stream of new photos and other minor updates, things were quiet until October of last year.

That’s when the second trailer (2.6 million views on YouTube) came out, teased ahead of time in a video with the cast covering their bases by throwing out a number of potential release dates. It differs from the first trailer in a couple areas. First, it frames Guy’s epiphany that he and everyone he knows is living in a video game as a result of his crush on Milly. Second, it shows the chaos a free-range Guy has within the game and how it affects the real world, especially on the company that makes the game.

That second trailer gained more headlines for racking up over 55 million views in the first 24 hours following its release.

Another poster, this one showing Guy standing on a rooftop above the chaos of the city, came out at the same time.

At that point Disney was aiming for a mid-December release date, hopeful the pandemic would be receding into the background by then. The studio’s optimism was short-lived, though, and in November the movie was taken off the 2020 release calendar, with no new date announced until a month later.

ok for real this time

Fast forward to March 2021, when another video came out with Reynolds announcing a new (and eventually final) release date, though still in a way that played into the ridiculousness that had come before.

In May Disney CEO Bob Chapek confirmed the movie would receive an exclusive 45-day theatrical run instead of going to streaming simultaneously or shortly after that theatrical run.

There’s a bit more of the non-video game world that is impacting Guy’s existence in the next trailer (4.8m views on YouTube, released in early June. Other than that it hits many of the same beats as previous spots.

The whole cast shows up in a very typical action ensemble design on the poster released at that time. Differentiating it from something like an MCU entry is the upbeat and naive look on Guy’s face as he stands over everyone in the hero spot.

An interview with Comer in June had her talking about entering the world of action movies, working with Reynolds and more.

Lil Rey Howery, who plays Guy’s best friend in the game world, appeared at Essence Fest to promote the movie.

News came in late June that the movie would screen at the Locarno International Film Festival in August.

In mid-July Reynolds released a video that has Deadpool and Korg from the MCU reacting to the latest trailer. The mashup makes sense given Disney and Fox are now a single entity and that the movie stars both Reynolds and Waititi, who plays Korg.

Traditional 30-second spots began airing in mid-July that recapped the story and its visuals. Longer commercials obviously had more room to breathe but stuck to the same basic message.

Later spots expanded on what had come before while also pulling primarily from footage the audience has already seen. Of note, it was being positioned as the movie event of the summer, which may be a bit hyperbolic but what else are you going to do…

The first clip shows Guy and Millie pulling off a big fight in a nightclub. That clip really shows off the interplay between the two leads as well as the basic level of humor audiences can expect. Another has Guy being confronted by the police for breaking many of the game’s rules.

All the main characters got posters of their own (by marketing agency BLT Communications).

Guy and Millie have a meet cute over a Mariah Carey song in another clip. How important that song is to the movie and its story (it’s featured in nearly all the trailers and TV spots) was shared by Reynolds in an interview at the movie’s premiere.

Just how much Waititi riffed while on set was covered in a short featurette that had Levy, Comer and others praising his performance.

the comer and reynolds show

While it had been part of the campaign since the very beginning, the last few weeks featured a focus on Comer and Reynolds’ chemistry with a series of videos that had them playing off each other, often at Reynolds’ expense.

First, the two appeared in a promo video debating whether or not this qualified as a “date movie” especially in light of the social distancing of the last year and a half.

They then squared off in a test of their Canadian knowledge, the joke being that Comer is British.

These were fun largely because this is Reynolds’ brand in particular. For the last several years he’s consistently broken the fourth wall in his movie campaigns, so this makes a lot of sense and delivers what audiences have come to expect when he has a new movie coming out.

Individual videos had Comer and then Reynolds introducing their respective characters and having some fun with international translations of the movie’s title.

wrapping up the campaign

In early August Reynolds shared a video that had him showing off the massively bulked up physique he achieved in just a week, one that means he can no longer fit into the Deadpool suit but which allows him to appear as Dude in the movie.

A TV spot released just after that video came out showed off Dude and how he’s used by the game’s designers to try and reign in Guy.

Dolby and IMAX posters offered slightly different takes on what had come before, but they both still communicate how Guy is the lone calm in the center of endless chaos.

The movie’s premiere was held in Los Angeles last week, with Reynolds, Comer, Levy and others in attendance. At that premiere the cast and crew spoke about the unique approach they took to construct the world of the movie and more.

Comer made an appearance at the London premiere event as well.

Levy was the subject of a much-shared profile that dove into how he’s one of the most successful and hard-working comedy directors in Hollywood but has at the same time flown largely under the radar in terms of outsized press and attention. Many of the cast and crew praise Levy and his work ethic in that piece.

Overall

There have been so many campaigns over the last few months that have tried to be the end-all-be-all in jumpstarting theatrical moviegoing. Some have been more effective than others depending on where in the latest sub-cycle of the Covid-19 pandemic we are and what the audience’s appetite for breaking out of their new view-from-home norm might be.

The Free Guy campaign doesn’t make that kind of statement as explicit as the push for, say F9, but it’s still there lurking beneath the surface.

What may set this apart from what’s come before is that most of those earlier releases have been either thrillers or franchise action films while this one is clearly a comedy. That’s a different kind of communicable experience than just watching super heroes beat up bad guys or cars be pulled around by giant magnets. The campaign has played into that with its frequent tweaking of Reynolds’ and the focus on Waititi’s improv antics.

While the $15-18 million that’s predicted for the film’s opening weekend box-office may not be all that impressive compared to some other recent movies, it may actually represent a much more accurate look at how people are feeling about theaters since this one isn’t available for streaming simultaneously.

Looking Toward the Fall Movie Season

We should be more confident, but that’s not working out.

Last month’s grand reopening of movie theaters in many parts of the country did not turn out as expected, though that in and of itself should have been expected. Tenet, seen as the salvation for theaters that had been closed for months due to the Covid-19 pandemic, grossed an estimated $41 million in its first three weeks combined, and that was the best performing film since mid-September. Weekend box-office totals have fallen since its release without another major feature to attract audience interest.

Also falling in that time has been advertising spending by studios, largely because Tenet acted not as a savior but a warning signal to others, including Disney, which pushed just about everything on its release calendar – including Black Widow and West Side Story – by anywhere from six to 12 months down the road.

Key to all of this is that a handful of major markets including Los Angeles and New York City are still keeping theaters closed. San Francisco officials have given the greenlight for opening, but the recently-announced delay of both No Time To Die – pushed from November to April of next year – and Dune – pushed from December to October – has created even more chaos.

Looking at how things stand as of this moment, the biggest titles still on the 2020 calendar, all of which are slated for mid-November at the earliest, are:

  • 11-20-20: Soul
  • 12-11-20: Free Guy
  • 12-18-20: Coming 2 America
  • 12-18-20: Death on the Nile
  • 12-25-20: News of the World
  • 12-25-20: Respect
  • 12-25-20: Wonder Woman 1984

That list, which doesn’t include a handful of smaller titles with great word of mouth like Nomadland and Ammonite as well as streaming releases like The Prom, raises a number of questions and other points to consider.

What’s the Plan Until November 20th?

Between now and the middle of November, the major releases are all happening on Netflix while theaters only have a smattering of art-house titles to program. The Trial of The Chicago 7, Rebecca and others are all streaming, meaning unless The War With Grandpa unexpectedly breaks out into blockbuster territory theaters are going to have minimal new films to play and even fewer that benefit from any sort of mass advertising or marketing campaigns.

That landscape is why theaters are reducing hours or closing on select days in certain markets to reduce overhead during times when no one is coming to see any of the movies being shown. Regal even just announced it will be closing all theaters in the U.S. and U.K. It’s also why a coalition of The National Association of Theatre Owners, the Directors Guild of America, the Motion Picture Association and scores of high-profile filmmakers have once again petitioned congressional leaders for an industry bailout package, citing the monumental losses they’ve suffered.

Such a bailout seems unlikely, though. While the House of Representatives has unproductive talks with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on a stimulus bill that’s $1 billion less than what the House passed in May, the Senate is solely focused on rushing through a Supreme Court justice approval. And if the news that Disney Parks will be laying off 28,000 people in California and Florida or that airlines are on the verge of letting 50,000 employees go isn’t enough to spur significant action, it’s hard to imagine a strongly-worded letter will do the trick.

Some of Those Dates Are Sketchy At Best

If Disney were going to move Free Guy, which originated with Fox, it likely would have done so last week when it made other changes. And Sony seems to have revived the No Time To Die campaign in earnest, so the odds it’s released as scheduled are at least decent.

But it’s hard to believe Coming 2 America remains on that mid-December date for much longer. With October now begun, the campaign for a long-anticipated sequel starring the recently revived Eddie Murphy should have started by now. Instead there hasn’t even been a teaser trailer or announcement poster. The same goes for News of the World, directed by Paul Greengrass and starring Tom Hanks Elizabeth Marvel.

Also, of the nine titles on that list, eight of them are bunched on just three dates: 11/20, 12/18 and 12/25. That’s literally putting all the eggs in a single basket and means studios are counting on people feeling like it’s simultaneously too dangerous to visit family and friends during the holidays but also safe enough to hang out in theaters. Those are both big assumptions or bets to make.

They also assume that the attention of the U.S. audience won’t be focused tightly on what’s shaping up to be a contested election cycle. With cries of hoaxes, frauds and conspiracies already abundant there’s a good chance the end of November will still find the country watching the legal battles being threatened by a certain incumbent president. Either that, or a clear defeat of that same individual will consume 40% of the nation in planning the armed rebellion he and others like him have been encouraging for months now should he lose.

The Question of The Audience Remains

NATO head John Fithian may find New York governor Andrew Cuomo to be an easy target to blame, citing Cuomo’s insistence on keeping NY theaters closed. Financial analysts may suggest studios take one for the team and keep putting movies in theaters to help exhibitors, who are seeing their stocks take a massive hit. It may be true that Tenet simply wasn’t the best movie to lead with last month.

Even if all those things are true, it remains unclear what percentage of the audience NATO, Wall Street or anyone else thinks is coming back to theaters any time soon for two reasons.

First is simply because of health concerns. The number of coronavirus cases are rising across almost the entire country, there’s massive uncertainty because not only does the president have Covid-19 but the information coming out of the White House – which is increasingly looking like a super-spreader hotspot – is unclear and inconsistent. A lot of people are either still taking the same precautions, for a variety of reasons, they have been for the last seven months or are newly concerned about potential exposure. As Lucas Shaw said on Twitter:

Second, the economic picture has not improved substantially for a good percentage of the U.S. population. While stock indexes continue to inexplicably rise:

  • 60% of U.S. households have reported the loss of all or some of their income in the last several months, with the impact falling disproportionally on non-white demographic groups and forcing many women out of the workforce because they’re now responsible for monitoring the at-home learning of their children.
  • The number of people who have been out of work for six months – the threshold for labeling those losses “permanent” – is growing, in part because companies aren’t filling open positions, asking those still at work to do more in a push for productivity.
  • Personal spending has dropped with the ending of enhanced unemployment benefits, or because people have dropped out of the workforce.

With that all in mind, it’s unclear what disposable income the analyst quoted in the THR piece linked above thinks people have to be spending on what is essentially an outing explicitly designed to give them Covid-19.

And, as I’ve said before, it’s unclear exactly what studios are supposed to do. Any option available to them at the moment may bring in only a percentage of what a movie was expected to given a fully functioning economy and box-office. So they must decide between honking off consumers and exhibitors by holding movies back from any kind of release or honking off only exhibitors and punting titles to streaming of PVOD. Only one of those comes without putting studios in the position of the bait that lures audiences into an infectious disease trap.