you got your consumer product in my movie!

I’m certainly not the first to notice the latest micro-trend in movie releases. Much like those weird moments in history where there was an odd influx of movies about volcanoes, Earth-shattering asteroids etc, there’s been a recent wave of films about consumer products. More specifically, these movies are about the creation or marketing of those products.

Consider that in the last month movies like Air and Tetris have told the stories of how Nike developed the Air Jordan sneaker and how a video game executive secured the rights to what would become the most popular video game ever, respectively. And on the release schedule over the next few months are both Blackberry, about the development of the first mass consumer email/phone combo, and Flamin’ Hot, about the (possibly apocryphal) creation of the Cheetos flavor white Midwesterners consider “too ethnic.”

Bring It What GIF by AIR Movie - Find & Share on GIPHY

Note that these movies and their stories are distinct from films like The Lego Movie and the upcoming Barbie, that are indeed about consumer products but treat the subject matter as the foundation for an original story instead of being about the product itself.

At Vox, Alissa Wilkinson pegs these and other similar recent movies as part of a focus on entrepreneurs – specifically the entrepreneurs that emerged victorious – as opposed to the obsession with scammers and con artists that was prevalent a couple years ago, resulting in movies like I Care A Lot, series like “Inventing Anna”, “We Crashed” and others that glorified people whose morals were lacking but whose success apparently justified whatever damage they did along the way.

That may certainly be part of it, and it’s a shift that likely has at least something to do with the state of the U.S. economy at the moment. Movies about hustlers and scammers may be more popular and desirable during downturns because the audience is already convinced the system is rigged against them so “hurray” to those who got theirs regardless of the tactics. But when things are looking a bit better we want to focus on the legitimate business people because we’re feeling a bit more confident that hey, if we work hard and have a good idea that might be us.

Another factor that may be in play with this spate of stories about men in suits engaging in business is that we live in a brand-centric media world.

Movies, TV series and other media based on existing IP and brands are safe bets for big, debt-ridden companies to make because theoretically they come with a built-in audience and tend to perform well both domestically and outside the U.S. But those can’t be the *only* stories that are told.

So the hope is that, if a compelling story can be found somewhere, media based on well known consumer products may be the next best thing. They have a lot of the same advantages as adapting a video game for a limited series or building a movie franchise around a popular comic book character.

Primarily, existing awareness of the product itself can be activated in service of the movie or other media. That’s especially powerful if the product being featured is involved in the production or has at least given its blessing to the project.

Consider how much of the Tetris marketing was done not by Apple, which produced the movie, but by the company that owns Tetris itself. Or how much of Air’s marketing was an overt gesture in the direction of sneakerheads that have kept new Air Jordan models selling well despite its namesake having retired as a player decades ago. It’s similar to how biopics like Bohemian Rhapsody, The Dirt and others were produced in partnership with the current or surviving band members.

In essence these movies are not standalone objects, they are extended marketing efforts for the consumer products – including bands – whose origins are being told. Bohemian Rhapsody resulted in a massive increase in interest around Queen and its catalog, surely part of the calculus around its production. Mötley Crüe saw the same kind of spike following its biopic and used that renewed buzz to sell its catalog a couple years later. Expectations were that Air would have a similar impact on sneaker sales based on the interest in new shoes released around the release of “The Last Dance” documentary series in 2020.

Rami Malek Queen GIF by 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment - Find & Share on GIPHY

Now obviously there are exceptions to this consumer-centric production approach. There aren’t any new Blackberrys hitting shelves. And given the contested nature of the story told in Flamin’ Hot it’s doubtful Frito-Lay will make much of an effort to draw attention to the movie.

That doesn’t mean those and other movies weren’t greenlit by respective studios at least in part because the subject matter is easily understood by the audience because they’re already familiar with the products themselves. Now the hope is they want to hear, in the words of Paul Harvey, the rest of the story.

quick takes: movie marketing news for 10/17/22

A few brief thoughts on stories that have caught my eye while considering when the G.I. Joe team will be assembled to stop Elon Musk from completing whatever world-dominating project he’s working at the moment.

The theater industry keeps having very bad months, up to and including this past September, despite a number of films performing better than expected or beating their projected opening weekends. There seem to be a lot of people out there who are blaming streaming (as if it isn’t four of the same five companies supplying both distribution points) but it’s not as if there weren’t options at the box office. It’s simply that there’s a lack of audience desire to go see anything that isn’t a known quantity, at least not en masse.

To illustrate how it’s an audience interest issue, Blonde didn’t last very long at the top of Netflix’s “most popular” list before being supplanted by Gerard Butler’s latest generic action flick.

Also, the price of a movie ticket keeps going up, though the National Association of Theater Owners hasn’t updated its figures since 2019. NATO claims the more current figures wouldn’t be comparable to pre-2020 years because fewer kids and seniors are going to the theater and the discounts they enjoy have always heavily influenced the average it tracked. That may be but if fewer kids and seniors are going to the movies then that in and of itself is significant news, as is the fact that a major trade organization doesn’t want to publicize prices if it can’t put its thumb on the scale.

Movie Theater Popcorn GIF by filmeditor - Find & Share on GIPHY

Oh, and all this isn’t going to get better anytime soon given housing, food and energy costs keep going up so people have less disposable income for entertainment. And while streaming services are also raising prices, the per-unit cost is still drastically lower than it is for theaters and so is a better bargain.

I had a similar thought as Alissa Wilkinson at Vox, that so many recent movies feature a half-dozen or more stars that just a few years ago would have been carrying their own film. My theory on this has two parts:

  • That fewer non-IP movies are being made and so if they want to keep working they’ll jump into an ensemble project even if the role they’re offered isn’t at the level they would prefer
  • That movies have entered the same era the live music industry did in the mid-90s, where if you were either The Eagles commanding hundreds of dollars a ticket from well-off Boomers or a younger band still making their bones at smaller ballrooms. Anyone inbetween signed up for a “festival” tour with three to six other mid-range bands all hoping the combined appeal would keep them going for another couple years.

Adam B. Vary is a good writer but I have to take issue with the part of his recap of the “She-Hulk: Attorney At Law” finale where he says “part of the MCU’s gargantuanly successful appeal is that it’s never been a self-serious endeavor.” If anything the MCU has always been remarkably self-serious, treating every moment like it matters *so much* and everyone involved is not having any fun at all. Even the supposed comedic entries are tremendously self-important.

Super Hero Disney GIF by Marvel Studios - Find & Share on GIPHY

Oh are we supposed to be surprised that the same terrible people who harassed Amber Heard a few months ago are now going after Angelina Jolie as the latter goes public with the abusive behavior of her ex? I’m not, largely because this is all an extension of Gamergate-era behavior that platforms haven’t adequately dealt with.

The release of Halloween Ends has provided an opportunity for two of my least favorite modern media story types, specifically:

  • Is [insert name of movie” streaming?” This isn’t really a question given the campaign for every movie will make it clear the film is “Only in theaters” or prominently display the name of the streaming service it’s debuting on.
  • Is this movie really the end of the franchise it’s part of?” Come on, we know that even if a release is the end of one particular cycle it’s not the last time we’ll see that franchise in theaters. Sure, when Tom Holland moves on from playing Spider-Man his particular story arc will conclude, but it won’t be more than a couple years (if that long) before another Spider-Man movie comes out.

constantine rises again

What the hell(blazer)?

I’m sure I wasn’t the only one taken by surprise last week when Warner Bros. announced it was producing a sequel to 2005’s Constantine, including the fact Keanu Reeves was returning to the title role and that director Francis Lawrence – who in the intervening years has directed or is planning to direct four of the five movies in the Hunger Games series – was also coming back.

The reasons the news came as such a shock were many and varied, including in no specific order:

  • While it was a decent success at the box-office, I didn’t think the 2005 original was particularly beloved. Surely there are some that have remained or become fans of the movie, but reaction to the original wasn’t all-that positive. A lot of folks criticized it at the time because they didn’t think the character on screen bore much aside from the name in common with the one found in the comics published by DC/Vertigo.
  • A lot of that came down to the fact that being from working class Liverpool is kind of key to who Constantine is and how he acts, with Reeves not conveying any of that.
  • There’s also the fact the movie version relies a lot more on gadgets and weapons and a lot less on sleight of hand and con artistry, which again is a big part of who the character is.
  • On the other hand, the character of John Constantine has been played by Matt Ryan since 2014, first in his own show (unceremoniously canceled by NBC during its first season) and then as a recurring/regular character on “Legends of Tomorrow” after an appearance on “Arrow.”
  • Ryan’s take on Constantine has been so popular he’s also voiced the character in a series of animated features and shorts.

Tv Show Constantine GIF by Warner Archive - Find & Share on GIPHY

I should state here that in the wake of the news I made the decision to rewatch Constantine, likely for the first time in at least 10 years. While it’s an entertaining enough Keanue Reeves supernatural thriller, the criticisms about this take on the character are absolutely well-founded. At one point Lucifer warns John about not pulling another con on him, but the line is completely unfounded as Constantine hasn’t conned anyone in the film. He *has*, though, blown up a bunch of demons with a massive grenade launcher thing.

Ryan’s take on the character, though, is much more like the original Hellblazer, and it’s a shame that 1) That series isn’t on HBO Max or Netflix, and 2) That he’s not being given a chance to keep going as Constantine as he’s clearly been having a blast for the last eight years.

[Full disclosure: I was heavily involved with promoting the TV series during its run as I was still working with DC Entertainment at the time.]

On top of all that, WB announcing a new movie based on a DC property comes at a time when the studio is…let’s just say it’s in flux, particularly when it comes to its stable of comics characters.

  • It just canceled the Batgirl film that was nearly complete and has shuffled the release dates for movies like Black Adam and others because it reportedly doesn’t have the available cash to support more than a couple major releases a year.
  • Last month Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav said he was hoping to “reset” DC projects and find someone who can oversee the whole stable of characters and properties. But that search has been difficult as no one seems to be jumping at the chance to be blamed for the next disappointment after finding they don’t have as much control as they thought.
    • I only say that because it’s happened at least three times in the last 10 years, each time ending by the executive being forced out, quitting because the studio said he couldn’t make his five hour dystopian team movie or being made to feel extremely unwelcome when the movies he *did* develop are canned.

Whoever is eventually selected will now find themselves with a Constantine film in the works they had no hand in greenlighting and may not feel particularly excited about. And they’ll be reminded that no, it’s not part of the Justice League universe. Or maybe it is but not in an official way. Or it’s not, but some of the same characters are referenced. Or the movie is but the TV show reboot that was licensed to another company isn’t.

This new movie could be much better than the first and much more faithful to the source material, just as the live action series and some of the animated follow-ups were and have been. But the fact that it’s even happening is a big surprise, all the more so for the uncertain moment it was announced in.

what the huh? batgirl shelved by warner bros.

Barbara Gordon doesn’t get any respect

You can’t help but notice the timing.

About a week and a half ago Marvel Studios unveiled their cinematic plans through 2025, announcing the next entries in what is now being referred to as “The Multiverse Saga” with interconnected movies and streaming series culminating in another two-part Avengers finale. Directors have already been hired, plans made and more, even as the studio preps for the debut of “She-Hulk: Attorney At Law” on Disney+ and basks in the success of the latest Thor movie.

And based on how recent Marvel Studios have gone, it’s reasonable to speculate that the embrace of the “multiverse” will allow it to bring together several disparate efforts from recent years – the Netflix Defenders, Fox Mutants and anything else that isn’t connected to Spider-Man and therefore controlled by Sony – under one roof, plucking the best from each territory to build the next decade of cultural dominance.

This approach, where everything is connected and each chapter builds toward a conclusion (that isn’t really a conclusion but simply the jumping off point for what’s next), has been refined by Marvel Studios and Disney over the last several years.

By way of answer to this latest onslaught, Warner Bros. Discovery (the name of the new post-merger company) has decided to trip over its own shoelaces and faceplant into an anti-personnel mine.

Season 5 GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

As evidence, see the decision announced earlier this week to unexpectedly shelf the nearly-complete Batgirl movie starring Leslie Grace.

The film didn’t have an official release date. And whether it was going to be released theatrically or just on HBO Max was a conversation that seemed to go back and forth, especially as Discovery exerted more control over the company and its output.

But, at least for now, it won’t be seen anywhere, reportedly because the studio has calculated it can get more from not releasing it at all and taking the tax writeoff than it could from sending it to theaters, streaming, VOD or other platforms.

Putting aside whether test screenings were lukewarm, or if there was internal disagreement about whether to invest more money in order to make it a bigger theatrical “spectacle”, this is a weird decision.

It’s hard to think of any recent precedent for a studio to remove a film entirely from release consideration. Dates have been pushed back, movies removed from calendars for a while for various reasons and plans otherwise altered, but for a title to just be spiked completely, especially when it’s this close to being finished, is just insane.

Not only that, but it’s hard to imagine WBD making the same decision if a Batman or Superman movie was getting the same early reactions. And it’s worth pointing out Batgirl’s $90 million budget is just a little more than Warner Bros. gave Zack Snyder to reclaim Justice League and turn it into an even longer and more incoherent movie, with the studio specifically using it as a lure to build HBO Max subscriptions.

This news comes just a few months after the company shut down pre-production on a planned Wonder Twins film, again citing the “it would cost too much to make it theatrical but it’s too expensive for streaming” justification.

Twins GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

These are just the latest examples of the lack of coherent or consistent strategy or plan around the DC cinematic franchise.

  • Man of Steel 2 eventually became Batman v Superman, which was delayed a by nearly a year because Zack Snyder needed “more time”
  • Suicide Squad was effectively taken out of the hands of director David Goyer, with editing turned over in part to a trailer production agency. The movie was such a disappointment with critics and fans the sequel The Suicide Squad effectively ignores it and starts over, only carrying Harley Quinn over.
  • We all know what happened when the studio tried to create a Justice League team movie
  • At one point there were three different Joker movies in development but only one wound up getting made
  • A proposed Harley Quinn solo movie eventually became Harley Quinn and the Birds of Prey, which again just doesn’t bother with much of what’s come before
  • Green Lantern Corps was announced at SDCC 2015 but, aside from a few vague comments, it seems like this is dead in the water. A TV series from producer Greg Berlanti was also announced a while ago but it’s been a bit since there was any public momentum on it
  • New Gods was announced in 2018 with Ava DuVernay directing and comics superstar Tom King writing, but the project was killed in 2021
  • A Cyborg solo film was announced in 2014 and even given a 2020 release date, but that never happened

That’s actually just a small sampling of the projects that have been canceled, altered and otherwise taken to a farm upstate. Over the course of all this, the studio managed to burn almost all the goodwill earned by Margot Robbie’s performance as Harley Quinn by constantly shifting her character around. That goes right up to just days ago, when Lady Gaga confirmed she’ll play Harley in a sequel to Joker.

Screaming Harley Quinn GIF by The Suicide Squad - Find & Share on GIPHY

It also throws everything currently planned for the near future into doubt.

Solo movies featuring Static Shock, Blue Beetle, Zatanna and Booster Gold were expected to go to HBO Max but now it seems those films will either be shut down before production begins or have their budgets increased to make them worthy of theatrical release. Given projects with characters who aren’t white men seem to be first on the chopping block, it’s not recommended you hold your breath for these to come out.

If WBD is truly emphasizing theatrical features for its DC properties, it makes the potential for a second season of “Peacemaker” questionable, though director James Gunn has said things are still set on that front, and might even throw the various spinoffs of The Batman into the Maybe Pile.

Most notably, the question now becomes what WBD does with The Flash.

Being generous, the movie originally had a 2018 release date, but that was four directors and six screenwriters ago. It was positioned by the studio as being a new start for the DCEU that fully embraced a Multiverse encompassing both the cinematic and television iterations of characters. Big buzz surrounded announcements Michael Keaton was returning as Batman and Sasha Calle had been cast as Supergirl, the latter being setup for her own later solo outing.

Over the last several months star Ezra Miller has been arrested for harassment multiple times and has more recently faced charges he’s holding people in Vermont on a farm stocked with firearms and that he’s harassed others overseas.

So with a budget of $200 million (but likely more than that given the multiple stops and starts it’s experienced), does Warner Discovery cut its losses on this film and let it fall to the ash heap? The idea of trying to promote anything with Miller has to be extremely unattractive right now, though the studio hasn’t let past incidents with the actor stop it from including him in DC and Wizarding World projects. And if it does, what does that mean for Calle’s Supergirl or Keaton’s Batman?

There have been multiple reports over the last few years that the studio doesn’t know what to do with Superman (which is mind-boggling in and of itself) but it seems few there know what to do with any of their super hero characters.

Each time a new leadership team comes in they seem intent on burning down the projects of the previous administration and creating their own “10-year plan”. While that might be standard operating procedure in Hollywood, the impact is different when you’re trying to create a cohesive universe of characters and stories since no plan ever has enough time to get any traction. And knee-jerk decisions are made at the studio level that never make anything better.

For years WB has said it needs a figure like Marvel Studios’ Kevin Feige to oversee everything, but the four or five people it’s tried to put into that role have never been given the power to make changes, nor have they lasted long enough before they’re shuffled out after their first movie doesn’t have a $500 million opening weekend.

It’s extremely disappointing to see Batgirl cast aside like this. The project seemed to have a lot going for it and likely would have worked on either the small or big screen. More than that, it’s disappointing to see there still isn’t a plan other than to keep letting Marvel/Disney+ dominate the super hero genre both in theaters and on streaming.

returning to theaters en masse

It’s the new pesto…

At the end of last week Sony announced it planned to bring Spider-Man: No Way Home back to theaters September 2nd for the Labor Day weekend. Not only that, but this is a new “fan cut” titled “The More Fun Stuff Version.”

This edition reportedly contains new scenes as well as extensions of existing scenes. Considering the original release was two-and-a-half hours long, it will be interesting to see the running time on this new version.

The news comes just a couple weeks after Sony tried something similar, bringing Morbius back to theaters in early June after its initial April release, though the return added less than $100,000 to its existing domestic total, keeping it in the $73m range.

Listen Jared Leto GIF by MorbiusMovie - Find & Share on GIPHY

By contrast, No Way Home grossed $804m before going on to strong numbers on home video/digital.

Morbius’s rerelease was explained as a way to hopefully capitalize on the memeification of the movie, though that obviously didn’t turn out well. Bringing back No Way Home, on the other hand, seems more like being out of ideas.

sony’s currently glowing

Back in April Sony was the belle of the ball, credited for saving the box office thanks to hits like Spider-Man, Sonic The Hedgehog 2 and Uncharted. The studio topped that off with a “victory lap” at CinemaCon where it touted its success and reaffirmed its commitment to theatrical releases, a commitment that surely has little to do with it being the only major player without its own streaming platform. That’s why it has a deal with Netflix allowing the streamer to snatch up some titles.

The remainder of 2022 looks a little less optimistic, with July’s Bullet Train, September’s The Woman King and October’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Part 1 looking like the surest box-office bets. And since April theaters have been packed with audiences turning out for Doctor Strange 2 (Marvel/Disney), Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) and now Jurassic World: Dominion (Universal).

twice as nice

Bringing popular (however you want to define that term) movies back to theaters seems like the logical extension of a business that has been in massive flux for the last two decades as studios evolved in response to changing consumer trends and preferences. It also appears to be a reaction to how the whole industry was thrown for a loop during the pandemic.

Theatrical attendance essentially zeroed out for a year and a half following March, 2020. In that time Warner Bros. went all-in on HBO Max, Universal, Disney and Paramount all experimented with streaming exclusives or hybrid releases and so on. And each time the studios genuflected in the direction of theater chains and promised they were still the prettiest in the room.

As people started coming back to theaters it became clear that franchises, sequels and other existing IP were cementing their dominance in the world of ticket sales. Yet at CinemaCon there seemed to be agreement that tentpoles alone couldn’t keep theaters afloat and that a broad-range of mid-level features were needed.

they’re back…again

If rereleasing major titles becomes a trend adopted by other studios, the idea that there’s any serious commitment to anything less than blockbusters becomes even more difficult to swallow. Such rereleases used to be exceedingly rare, saved only for titles like Avengers: Endgame that were major events. If this tactic is more widely adopted then it becomes less “satisfying public demand” and more “we just want to supplement home video revenue and fill a hole in our release schedule.”

The test, to my mind, will be if titles like Top Gun: Maverick and Jurassic World: Dominion are back on the big screen in two or three months. Right now, as stated earlier, Sony seems to be the only studio actively doing this, but if another joins in we will officially have a trend.

And then all best are effectively off, as box-office totals become less a moment in time and more a moving target studios can impact at will.

quick thoughts on recent movie news 4/20/22

Rounding up a few stories from the last few days that have gotten my attention.

Compiled while thinking about how we’re in like the 17th news cycle of the “Elon Musk might buy Twitter with money he doesn’t have for purposes that are unclear and with a mindset that seems pulled straight from 2003” story.

The Streaming Wars Enter The “We Do Not Have Troops in Cambodia” Phase

The first interesting bit of data to hit on this front was a Nielsen survey reporting how nearly half of all streaming customers are overwhelmed by the amount of content on the services they subscribe to. While it also states those customers aren’t planning to scale back on those services, many also want some sort of bundling that would make it easier for them to choose what they have access to, something Disney already does with Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+.

Those are interesting numbers, but the fact that Netflix reported losing 200,000 subscribers in the most recent quarter indicates there’s a ceiling that’s being bumped into, especially when you remember Disney+ added almost 12 million subscribers in the quarter ending January 1st of this year.

It’s another reminder that the theory of infinite growth that powers investor expectations just isn’t realistic, especially in what’s now a mature market where people are making choices based on content and UX as opposed to significant product innovation. And Netflix keeps canceling popular/well-reviewed series and reducing the rest of its catalog even while raising prices, actively honking off the audience.

Make It Stop Schitts Creek GIF by CBC - Find & Share on GIPHY

As an example of the latter point, things like “adding an ad-supported tier” and “cracking down on password sharing” are now considered market innovation.

Plus, Netflix now finds itself in the position of the one streamer not aligned with a legacy media company/production studio. It used to benefit from that independence, but now it’s regularly shedding popular catalog titles as studios launch their own platforms.

Post-Lockdown Theatrical Audiences Are Extremely Picky

It’s not necessarily that Netflix (and streaming in general) killed action movies, romantic comedies or any other genre’s chances for theatrical box office success.

It’s more that audiences these days, with all the choices available to them, can only focus on one movie in theaters at a time.

Many weekends this year have seen the #1 movie at the domestic box-office gross twice or more what the #2 movie brought in.

Meg Ryan GIF by MGM Studios - Find & Share on GIPHY

So you can guess which movie will win the weekend based on the volume of press coverage more than anything.

Also, while it’s seemingly positive that the average movie ticket price hasn’t increased since 2019, inflation means people are having to weigh whether that $9.17 isn’t better spent on increasingly expensive gasoline, food and other necessities as opposed to luxuries like a movie at the theater.

People have lost jobs and seen their incomes fall in real dollars, not just the value of those dollars, over the last two years, so that’s of course going to impact how they decide to spend their money.

And even with price hikes, that $9.17 goes further and offers more options – many of which are totally “good enough” – when applied to a Netflix or other streaming subscription, though it’s still more than what customers think is a reasonable price for such subscriptions.

You Want to Prioritize Superman, You Say?

This is at least the third “Warner Bros. wants to reorganize DC Entertainment and find a Feige-like film head” story I’ve read in the last 10 years but I’m sure this time something will actually happen that won’t be undone in six months by a new studio head and/or how one movie underperforms compared to expectations.

Henry Cavill Superman GIF by Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - Find & Share on GIPHY

random thoughts on: the 2022 academy awards

Good Lord…

Well, that was certainly a thing that happened, apparently.

As usual I didn’t have a strong opinion about the Academy Awards in advance and don’t necessarily have a strong opinion about any of the winners, losers or other events that transpired during last night’s ceremony.

That being said, I do have a number of random thoughts I’m compelled to share.

In no particular order:

Let’s address the elephant in the room and say that “the slap” shouldn’t be that big a deal in the context of the Oscars essentially being a trade industry event. I’m sure if you attended the regional awards conference of insurance sales professionals, more than a few people have been smacked upside the head on stage.

The Naked Gun Slapping GIF by IFC - Find & Share on GIPHY

That being said, we shouldn’t be glorifying or ignoring violence.

Nor should we be condoning or glorifying the kind of “punching down” comedy that led to the incident.

That being said, do we need an emergency conversation on how to handle this on the part of the Oscars governors?

This one’s for the entertainment media: Do we need recaps/stories of everyone’s opinion about the incident? Because I don’t think we do. But then again, this is the same group that’s given us approximately 78,649 stories a week about the tragic shooting on the set of a C-grade Alec Baldwin movie, so…

While I didn’t watch the broadcast, it sounds like “the slap” was the most awkward Oscars moment since half the auditorium pointedly refused to clap, much less stand, when Elia Kazan was presented with an honorary Oscar in 1999.

On another topic, if you’re celebrating a 56% rebound in TV ratings from last year’s low that’s still half of what it was two years ago, your yardstick is broken.

The fact that the two weeks leading up to the Oscars was dominated by one hot take after another about whether Netflix would (or deserved to) win its first Best Picture award and then Apple swoops in and nabs the trophy when it’s been producing/distributing original films for like a quarter the time Netflix has is so amusing it’s almost all I’ve been able to think about.

Also, the “Does Netflix deserve to win Best Picture” topic is a subset of the larger “Does Netflix actually make movies if they aren’t shown on a big screen” conversation. Because that larger idea is misguided and somewhat destructive, all fruit from that tree is misguided and unhelpful, so let’s not keep engaging.

Zack Snyder movies winning both of the Pandering categories – Army of the Dead won “Fan Favorite” while Zack Snyder’s Justice League won “Cheer Moment” – is a great moment for all the fans who bullied Warner Bros. for five years and continue to support the director’s Randian incoherence.

The Flash Running GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

Especially sinceSunday” from Tick..Tick..Boom! is approximately 158X more of a “Cheer Moment” not to mention better filmmaking in general.

Those wins will also do nothing to make those fans feel anything less than silenced victims who constantly need to shut down anyone who disagrees with them. I know this from experience.

The very existence of those categories also signals the next step in the Oscar’s slow Dragonball-esque evolution into the MTV Movie Awards, which is interesting to watch.

See also the display of TikTok videos during an Encanto musical performance, which is a variation on the “let’s show Tweets in a chyron” tactic that’s been popular for like a decade or more now.

I mean if you want to rekindle interest in the Oscars broadcast, either go full Super Bowl and make it a two week event that offers something to all audiences at the end or embrace the suck and make it a popularity contest. Just accept the fact the latter means Red Notice 2 will be a serious contender, which changes the tenor of the proceedings.

Of course that’s only if broadcast ratings are a goal you’re chasing.

Which necessitates that at some level you’re looking to judge the value and worth of the movies being made by the size of the audience watching what is, again, a glorified tradeshow.

Which is the opposite of the narrative always spun about the Oscars, which is that it’s about the validation and recognition of your peers.

So which is it: Do you want Sean Penn to love you or do you want 10s of millions of people to watch the show? You can’t have both.

You also can no longer have both “popular TV broadcast” and “very strong opinions about how distribution platforms should define what we decide is award-worthy.”

one byproduct of endless remakes: originals being sidelined

Things happened before 1990, people…

At the risk of sending off strong “old man yells at cloud” vibes, I had to roll my eyes when I saw this as the lede to a story on a major entertainment news site:

Filmmaker Anthony Hemingway has signed on to direct a present-day remake of the 1996 film “The Preacher’s Wife” from Bassett Vance Productions and Anthony Hemingway Productions.

That lede raises the question of what counts as original source material.

1996’s The Preacher’s Wife, starring Denzel Washington, Whitney Houston and Courtney B. Vance, was itself a remake of the 1947 movie The Bishop’s Wife with Cary Grant, Loretta Young, and David Niven, itself an adaptation of a 1928 novel.

The slight name change was due to the idea of a bishop seeming a bit outdated and…well…white in 1996 if I remember correctly, though the story remained largely the same. But it’s still marked as a remake of the original. At the very least it’s another adaptation of the novel. Either way the foundation of the material goes back to the first half of the 20th century.

It would be like referring to a new version of Miracle on 34th Street as a remake of the 1994 movie instead of the 1947 original. Or someone’s recording “I Will Always Love You” as a cover of Whitney Houston’s song instead of it being Dolly Parton’s.

Then again even the BBC’s YouTube channel has Taylor Swift singing “Can’t Stop Loving You” designated as a Phil Collins cover instead of a White Horse/William Nicholls cover. So I’m not sure why I’m surprised.

It’s somewhat understandable that artists and fans may not always make this kind of distinction. Someone who grew up solely with the 1996 The Preacher’s Wife may simply not have the context to frame a new version appropriately. Just the other day I was thinking about how I grew up with the Kenny Rogers/Sheena Easton version of “We’ve Got Tonight” and went the better part of 10 years before learning Bob Seger wrote and recorded the song five years before it showed up on a record from Rogers.

But we live in the age of the internet and a simple Wikipedia search would provide the necessary background. And the expectations should be higher for anyone calling themselves a reporter. A decent editor should have caught it before the story was published.

To a great extent this tendency to reference the most recent iteration instead of diving all the way back to the source material is a product of the entertainment industry’s fascination with endlessly remaking the same properties over and over again.

That’s not new, either. The Philadelphia Story began life as a play before being made into a theatrical feature twice and adapted thrice for TV productions. But it’s only going to get worse as originals (or initial adaptations) from the early- or mid-20th century are superseded in the public consciousness by new versions from the 90s or 00s which have become for many people the de facto originals.

While I’m certainly not going to insist that everyone see the *actual* originals in order to appreciate the remake – just like I’m not going to insist everyone watch Rashomon in order to fully appreciate the genius of Star Wars: The Last Jedi, though they really should – we can at least ask the people who are bringing us the news of remakes, reboots and reimaginings to frame that news accurately and appropriately.

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the box office is back! (again)

theatrical distribution revived for third time this year

For the last few weeks there’s been a consistent narrative throughout much of the Hollywood trade press: Finally, the box office has returned to normal!

We’ve seen that in the wake of Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, which was the first movie of the Pandemic Era to pass $200m domestically.

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We’ve seen that in the wake of Venom: Let There Be Carnage scoring, with $90m, the biggest opening weekend of the Pandemic Era.

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We’ve now seen that in the wake of No Time To Die opening to a completely respectable (especially in the Pandemic Era) $65m weekend, which is almost exactly what tracking had projected.

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While I certainly understand that a return to the horse-race nature of box-office reporting is good for the trade press, and that the exhibition industry is happy that the numbers on these high-profile releases are up, I can’t shake the notion that we’re yearning for a “normal” that may no longer be attainable.

This isn’t unique to the movie industry. Between Covid variants, unvaccinated holdouts and the behaviors that have become entrenched during closures and shutdowns, we never get back to pre-pandemic normal on a number of fronts.

If that includes the movie industry (and it does), then everyone involved will need to redefine what “normal” stands for and looks like.

We already see that in how, over the last year or so, 45-day theatrical windows are now standard and agreed to by most major exhibition chains where not that long ago they were so short as to be unthinkable.

counting on things going well has never been a great strategy…

Now studios will be threading the needle between continuing to support the theater industry and meeting audience expectations for very quick home release. There may indeed be more demand for moviegoing than there has been, but the positive forecast of that analyst makes two big presumptions:

  • That the “studios continue to play ball”, and
  • “…a film slate that is more likely to hold…”

Not to sound like a broken record, but if there’s anything that should be assumed, it’s that things are going to be more uncertain and unreliable. If it’s not major weather events that are more severe because of climate change, it’s supply chain problems that could impact the all-important concessions portion of the business.

More than that, the continued health of the exhibition business depends on selling more expensive tickets for variations on the same three dozen franchises to a smaller number of people. 2019 ticket sales were near their 25 year low even as prices were over twice what they were in 1995. So this isn’t a growing market, just one that is hoping it doesn’t lose any more ground.

And, despite the assertion that there is massive pent-up audience demand to actually go to the theater, it’s hard to imagine more ground won’t be lost overtime.

Warner Bros. may not stick with their 2021 strategy of releasing all movies day-and-date to theaters and HBO Max. And other studios may make alterations to their streaming release strategies. But given Universal’s decision to bring Halloween Kills to Peacock at the same time it’s in theaters and other moves by other companies, it’s clear something fundamental has shifted and we now live in a world where decisions will be made on a case-by-case basis.

As such, we’re all going to have to come to terms with the reality that reality, as it used to be understood, needs to be put out to pasture.

what constitutes box-office “success” should be redefined

The movie industry, two months after theaters began reopening in earnest with the Memorial Day release of A Quiet Place Part II, has been grappling with an existential question in that time. Namely: What does success look like?

It’s a question without an easier answer. But that hasn’t stopped the industry and press from trying to determine A) what it is and B) if anything over the last eight weeks qualifies.

Consider the following points:

  • After being pushed by a year, A Quiet Place Part II opened with $57m, the best opening weekend since widespread shutdowns in early 2020. That amount was half of what Aladdin grossed when it opened the same weekend in 2019.
  • The total box-office for Memorial Day weekend was $96.5m, a far cry from 2019’s $220m.
  • Since then, there have only been three weeks where the total weekend box office gross topped $90m and only one that cleared $100m. In 2019 only three weekends *didn’t* gross at least $150m and two were over $200m.
  • Both F9 and Black Widow opened well – $70m and $80m, respectively – only to drop by 67% in their second weekends.

Given all that, it’s clear we’re grading on a curve here when trying to score what a win for the theater industry looks like.

It makes sense. After all, we’re still dealing with a Covid-19 pandemic whose…fourth?…wave is building up speed in the U.S. as vaccination rates plateau and a more easily transmissible variant spreads in that unvaccinated population. Local and federal guidance on mitigation efforts changes regularly, resulting in a confusing situation for those who *are* vaccinated.

Add to that the availability of many titles on streaming either simultaneous with theatrical release or shortly thereafter, which is going to lead some people to make different choices.

So then why are we not only desperately judging this year’s results by outdated standards but engaging in narratives that seem inaccurate at best?

the wrong yardstick

The first question brings to mind the kind of media analysis frequently offered by commentators such as Jay Rosen. He often points out that political journalism only knows two framing devices: “both sides” and “horse race.” Regardless of the context or truth of a story, the political press will frame it in one of those ways because it helps them maintain the veneer of objectivity.

So too the entertainment press doesn’t do context very often. For instance, this past weekend was labeled “slow” and the fault was put on the movies available. That may have been part of the reason why both Old and Snake Eyes underperformed projections, but the coronavirus resurgence and continued wildfires, along with other issues going on in other parts of the country, also likely played roles.

In short, the measure of what constitutes a success needs to be not only recent but also be constantly adjustable based on conditions. While extreme events like region-wide snowstorms etc are often noted in box-office reporting this should be taken up several steps and made more specific.

an inconsistent narrative

Black Widow brought in $80 million during its opening weekend, but when it dropped 67% from its first to second weekends everyone freaked out. Hot takes were written about what might be behind that drop, one of the biggest of the MCU franchise, and what it means for the future. NATO was quick to blame Disney for that drop, citing the simultaneous release in theaters and on Disney+ Premier Access.

If that were the case, what’s NATO’s theory for why F9 dropped 67% from Week 1 to 2? After all, that movie isn’t available on any streaming or PVOD service, getting an exclusive theatrical release. Do NATO or other parties have theories on why the Week 1-to-2 drops for movies like Boss Baby: Family Business and Cruella, both of which were in theaters and paid streaming tiers at the same time, weren’t as dramatic? And why wasn’t F9’s drop greeted with similar condemnations and hand-wringing?

Also, Black Widow:

  • Had the highest opening weekend of 2021 to date, beating even the much-vaunted F9
  • Is the second highest grossing movie of 2021, a mere $3m behind F9 despite being in theaters for half the time
  • Black Widow has grossed more – about $13m more – in its first three weeks than F9 did in its first three weeks

And again, it did all that while also being available on Disney+ Premier Access, where it brought in an additional $60m.

It seems that if there’s going to be a narrative established – namely that streaming availability hurts long-term box-office success – it should be backed up by more than one example. Otherwise you’re making arguments the facts don’t support.